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Stock : LLY

Basic Information of LLY : LLY (Eli Lilly and Company) is a globally leading pharmaceutical company, dedicated to the development, production, and marketing of medical products. It was founded by Eli Lilly in 1876 and is renowned for its innovative drugs and contributions to healthcare. Eli Lilly and Company has extensive operations and a robust research and development network around the world.

Key points for of LLY:

(Information from official website)

LLY Company (Eli Lilly and Company) has made significant innovative achievements in several areas of healthcare:

Diabetes and Obesity: LLY has developed tirzepatide, a dual agonist of the glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptors, which has shown remarkable effectiveness in treating type 2 diabetes and obesity.

Neuroscience: In Alzheimer's disease research, LLY has made progress with the development of donanemab, a monoclonal antibody targeting beta-amyloid protein. This drug has achieved the primary endpoint in Phase 2 clinical trials and can significantly slow down the rate of clinical progression in patients with early Alzheimer's disease.

Oncology: LLY has initiated a rolling application for pirtobrutinib, a non-covalent selective Bruton’s tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor, for the treatment of mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), demonstrating a high objective response rate in clinical trials.

Drug Development: LLY continues to invest in drug development, expecting to launch five innovative therapies in the next two years. The company identifies

Digitalization: LLY has also laid out initiatives in the digital transformation field, encompassing the application of digital traditional platforms, the creation of proprietary value platforms, and collaboration within the ecosystem to innovate work methods and enhance work efficiency.

Biomedical Field: In collaboration with Innovent Biologics, LLY has co-developed Halpryzia® (rituximab injection), a recombinant human-mouse chimeric anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody, for the treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, follicular lymphoma, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia. This is the second monoclonal antibody drug jointly developed and launched by both parties following Tyvyt®.

Drug Development: LLY continues to invest in drug development, expecting to launch five innovative therapies in the next two years. The company identifies

obesity treatment, prevention of age-related neurodegenerative diseases, and

innovative therapies composed of nucleic acids as the three emerging directions for biomedical innovation.

Trade notes of LLY :

Buy:

I've looked at the company for a month and the price is now at a basic low and I think it will bounce

back. The company is part of a large pharmaceutical company, and the stock price is likely to be

more stable and will not decline significantly. (04/19/2024)

SELL :

The stop profit position is close to the previous high pressure level, and I need to close my position

and take profits (05/02/2024)

4 Stock:KOLD

Basic Information of KOLD:

When considering an investment in the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (KOLD), it's important to understand that this ETF is designed to deliver twice the inverse daily performance of the Bloomberg Natural Gas SubindexSM.

This means on days when the index drops, KOLD is structured to rise, and if the index rises, KOLD is expected to fall, but in both cases, the movements are amplified

by a factor of two.

Factors Affecting Natural Gas Prices:

Supply and demand: Global economic activity, industrial demand, seasonal fluctuations (e.g., heating demand), and availability of alternative energy impact natural gas supply and demand balance.

Inventory levels: Natural gas inventory reflects market supply-demand dynamics,

directly influencing prices.

Geopolitical factors: Political stability, international relations, and policy changes affect gas supply and prices.

Production costs and technological advancements: Advancements like shale gas extraction tech may lower production costs and increase supply.

Environmental policies and regulations: Government environmental policies and support for clean energy affect gas demand.

Global economic conditions: Growth rate and industrial output influence energy demand, including natural gas.

Competing energy prices: Price changes in oil, coal, and renewables affect natural gas competitiveness.

Market sentiment and investor expectations: Short-term natural gas price fluctuations are influenced by market sentiment and price expectations.

Transportation and storage costs: Variations in transportation and storage costs affect final gas prices.

Exchange rate fluctuations: Since natural gas is often priced in USD, exchange rate changes impact purchasing costs for other countries.

Trade notes of KOLD:

Buy : According to CME’s weekly natural gas report, I think that the natural gas price is likely to fall next week due to weak demand, so KOLD is likely to rise, so I bought KOLD

SELL:

The expectations were wrong. The demand for natural gas did not continue to decline, but showed a seasonal increase. The increase in freight due to geopolitical conflicts also pushed up the transportation cost of natural gas. The trading volume of this ETF has shrunk, and trading is not active. The price increase is lower than my previous expectations, so I closed my position early

Reference : [1]CME Group. (2024, April 17). Natural Gas Weekly Report. CME Group. https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/education/oilchem/nat-gas-weekly-report-2024-04-17.html

5 hedge

Basic information about SPY and ES/M4:

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, tracks the S&P 500 Index's performance, offering investors exposure to 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. It's a popular choice for broad market exposure due to its liquidity, low expense ratio, and simplicity.

ES/M4 represents E-mini S&P 500 futures, mirroring the performance of the S&P 500 Index. These futures contracts allow investors to speculate on or hedge against movements in the S&P 500 without directly owning the underlying stocks. ES/M4 futures are favored for their liquidity, efficient price discovery, and flexibility, making them attractive for active traders and institutions seeking exposure to the U.S. equity market.

Using SPY and ES/M4 for risk hedging involves leveraging the correlation between the S&P 500 and E-mini S&P 500 futures to mitigate portfolio risk. The underlying asset of SPY is the S&P 500 index, and the negative correlation between ES/M4 futures and SPY is close to -1, so the two can be used for risk hedging trading. However, since the maturity date of

the ES/M4 futures I trade is June 24th, there is a certain short-term price deviation from the current SPY price, which is basis risk.

Trade notes:

Open position:

To hedge the risk , I bought 500 QTY of SPY , short with 1 QTY ES/M4 futures

Because the correlation is about -1,so the QTY I NEED TO BUY IS

.50*5072.5(value of ES/M4)/506.63(price of SPY)=500

Close position:

Do inversely trade

Sell 500 QTY of SPY , covered with 1 QTY ES/M4 futures

Hedging result evaluation:

Since ES/M4 is a futures contract that expires on June 24, there is basis risk between it and the spot SPY contract. That is, although the two are highly correlated, there is still a certain deviation. Generally speaking, although there is no Achieve perfect hedging with a total profit of 0, but still achieve sufficient risk hedging.

SPY Market - Sell SSgA US Active Trust - S&P 500 ETF TRUST US -500 1 USD Equities $504.13 $252,065.00 05/02/2024 09:30

KOLD Market - Sell ProShares Trust - ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas US -200 1 USD Equities $73.00 $14,600.00 05/02/2024 09:30

LLY Market - Sell Lilly(Eli) & Co US -100 1 USD Equities $777.00 $77,700.00 05/02/2024 09:30

ES/ M4 Market - Cover E-mini S&P 500 Futures JUN 24 US 1 1 USD Futures ###### $1,925.00 05/02/2024 - 09:30

SPY Market - Buy SSgA Active Trust - S&P 500 ETF TRUST ETF US 400 1 USD Equities $506.63 ($202,652.00) 04/30/2024 11:57

ES/ M4 Market - Short E-mini S&P 500 Futures JUN 24 US -1 1 USD Futures ###### $0.00 04/30/2024 - 11:39

SPY Market - Buy SSgA Active Trust - S&P 500 ETF TRUST ETF US 100 1 USD Equities $506.74 ($50,674.00) 04/30/2024 - 11:37

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CMCS A-5. 250- 0711 2025 - Buy Corp- 5. 250% - Nov 2025 ## 31. 46) /2024 - 09:30